Free Ebook The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

Download The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

Download The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)

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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Talebs landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we dont understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan.Praise for Nassim Nicholas TalebThe most prophetic voice of all.GQPraise for The Black Swan[A book] that altered modern thinking.The Times (London)A masterpiece.Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long TailIdiosyncratically brilliant.Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles TimesThe Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.The Wall Street JournalHugely enjoyablecompelling . . . easy to dip into.Financial TimesEngaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.The New York Times Book Review The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Buy The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto) on FREE SHIPPING on Nassim Nicholas Taleb Wikipedia Nassim Nicholas Taleb (arabisch ; * 1 Januar 1960 in Amioun Libanon) ist ein philosophischer Essayist und Forscher in den The Black Swan (Taleb book) - Wikipedia The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist scholar philosopher and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb It was released on April Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Wikipedia Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Arabic: alternatively Nessim or Nissim born 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist scholar statistician Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life Buy Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) on FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders Nassim Nicholas Taleb Home & Professional Page About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Antifragile The Black Swan Fooled by Randomness and The Bed of Procrustes) a (so Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner The Hindu After predicting the 2008 economic crisis the Brexit vote the US presidential election and other events correctly Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of the Incerto Books Recommended on the Tim Ferriss Show The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: On Robustness and Fragility Nassim Taleb Biography (Official) - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Official Research Biography of Nassim Nicholas Taleb Summary: Taleb's works focuses on mathematical philosophical and practical problems with risk and probability
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